Drought

A dry season, stressed crops, and a depleted aquifer describe different parts of Iran’s water problem. World Weather Attribution distinguishes meteorological drought, which concerns insufficient rainfall, from agricultural drought, which also considers evaporative demand. Its analysis of conditions from July 2020 through June 2023 used the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, or SPEI, to examine the combined effects of rainfall and potential water loss. A more negative index indicates more severe drought under that definition. s1

This distinction changes the explanation of recent events. The researchers found that human-caused warming intensified agricultural drought in Iran, with higher temperatures playing a central role. Their rainfall analysis did not show an equivalent change in the likelihood and intensity of low rainfall. The conclusion concerns the defined event and index; it should not be simplified into a claim that climate change caused every local rainfall shortage. s1

Groundwater research adds a longer perspective. A Nature Communications study used a national database of wells, springs, and qanats covering 2002–2017 to estimate recharge across Iran’s hydrological basins. Qanats are traditional systems that bring groundwater to the surface through gently sloping underground channels. The authors identified declining recharge and attributed the deterioration primarily to unsustainable water and environmental management, with climatic changes adding pressure. s2

Recharge is water entering an aquifer; withdrawal is water removed from it. Their balance determines whether groundwater reserves are being replenished or depleted. This means that rainfall alone cannot establish whether an aquifer is recovering. The study also emphasizes the difficulty of estimating recharge: geology, land use, evaporation, and interactions with surface water vary across the country. A national estimate therefore cannot substitute for evidence about an individual plain or well. s2

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s June 2026 country brief illustrates how conditions can change between growing seasons. It attributed the below-average 2025 cereal harvest mainly to prolonged dry weather, while also identifying cold damage, power outages that restricted irrigation, and expensive agricultural inputs. Harvest outcomes were therefore not a pure measure of drought intensity. s3

For the following season, FAO reported that abundant precipitation from mid-December 2025 through February 2026 replenished soil moisture and improved crop conditions. Its assessment was a forecast of near-average cereal production, issued while harvesting was beginning in some regions. It was not a final harvest result or evidence that long-term water scarcity had ended. The contrast shows why a drought account needs both reporting dates and the periods being described. s3

For an international reader, the practical distinction is between relief and recovery. Better crop moisture can coexist with depleted groundwater, while a national climate index can conceal local differences. A defensible account asks which water store or impact is being measured, against which baseline, and over what period. The sources here support a combined explanation involving climate and water management; none alone measures the entire water crisis. s1s2s3